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January 21, 2004
Talking Politics
How many times have you heard that "Bush has not started his re-election campaign" thing? Too many, and anyone who knows anything about politics knows this is complete nonsense. Let us count the ways.
During the holiday, Bush had some magazine folks come in for a spread of George working on his ranch. You know, the kind you do when you want to play up your folksy charm on the ranch you bought just before the primaries (in 1999) to pretend that you are a natural Texan.
Shortly thereafter, Bush floats two potential election theme proposals, one to put a man on the moon in 15 years (didn't we do that forty years ago?) and another to pretend to give a pseudo-amnesty to illegal immigrants (while you push them into a three year eviction program).
Then, one might give a political speech, call it the State of the Union, include all kinds of references to "some people", "some in this chamber", and "some critics" and compare the protests of millions as "the objections of a few", all the while proclaiming that the speech is not a political speech. That same speech might include one's election platform - and a call for the end of steroid use in baseball (talk about brave!).
Oh, and of course one might, although it wouldn't be "politics", run off to give a bunch of speeches on that very same platform in a few swing states. They might visit Ohio, Arizona, and New Mexico. All the while one might fund their way into a few fundraisers. Indeed one might do more fundraisers than press conferences (ok, this poignant fact is indeed "so last year!").
Thankfully, we don't have to worry about whether or not George Bush is running a political campaign. Obviously he is too busy hitting the stump to be running for re-election. Why else would someone's campaign have spent $15 million already.
Don't worry. I'm just as confused as you are.
Posted by seamus at 09:40 PM | Comments (0)
Swing State Project
The Swing State Project is a blog committed to following events as they unfold in the swing states for the 2004 election. I have been invited as guest poster on Pennsylvania issues. I'm really looking forward to contributing to a very worthwhile project.
While my posts over there will usually be short news bits from Pennsylvania that reflect on the election I just published my first guest post on Bush's State of the Union Speech and Jobs.
Posted by seamus at 05:07 PM | Comments (0)
January 20, 2004
Kucinich Crushes Clark
Well, I just couldn't resist stealing that headline (I saw it somewhere earlier tonight). Here is the current standings in the Democratic Nomination Race (I removed Gephardt who is withdrawing from the race).
John Kerry 1,128 delegates
John Edwards 957 delegates
Howard Dean 543 delegates
Dennis Kucinich 39 delegates
Wesley Clark 3 delegates
Joe Lieberman 0 delegates
Al Sharpton 0 delegates
Obviously, Sharpton and Lieberman took a big wooping! Not a real shock there. I actually think Kucinich did ok. And his quote below shows how his nomination is inevitable - one reason to obviously just forego the nomination process and anoint him! Sorry, I can't help mixing in the sarcasm. I think Kucinich is great on the issues, but a little impratical on realities. For what its worth, which isn't much.
I'm disappointed in Dean's performance. But not suprised. He has really been attacked full force by Gep, Kerry, and the media. It has been unreal and very effective. Listening to the reasons people are giving for shifting from Dean to Kerry or Edwards and you basically hear a combination of the media's often baseless attacks or the reflections of some poor decisions made by his campaign these last two weeks. The biggest factor though may have been how Edwards and Kerry blanketly coopted much of Dean's message in the past month. Is this a bad thing? That depends largely on what they do with it.
Enough for now. Congrats to Kerry and Edwards. For now...
Posted by seamus at 12:13 AM | Comments (0)
January 19, 2004
Priceless
This piece from the AP Wire is priceless. You just have to appreciate the odd optimism of Dennis Kucinich:
Some analysts noted that Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards, who voted for the Iraq war, outperformed anti-war candidates Howard Dean and Kucinich, showing that the war is not the premier issue in the campaign.Kucinich brushed off that suggestion, saying: ``It's a huge issue. My presence in the race will continue to give people an opportunity to vote to get out of Iraq.''
Earlier Monday, Kucinich laid out a scenario in which no clear winner emerges from state primaries and caucuses, and he prevails with the most delegates at the national convention in July.
``It is inevitable, really,'' he said.
Posted by seamus at 11:49 PM | Comments (0)
January 17, 2004
The Coming Storm
I'm back. And this is a good time to consider - how does America beat George W. Bush in 2004? We've already had one pseudo primary in the District of Columbia, Iowa's Democratic Caucus is only 48 hours away, and Bush's 2004 State of the Union Address is next Tuesday. So I thought I'd start with a number of posts on the subject.
First I thought I'd clue folks into a new great site that went up earlier this week. The media coverage these past few years has been nothing short of disturbing. George Bush has made some highly disturbing maneuvers which have somehow evaded any kind of criticism from the major media in America. On the other hand the Democratic Candidates for President have faced a smear campaign which has directly involved the media.
So it is exciting to see a credible, non-partisan media watchdog website over at the Columbia Journalism Review. Be sure to check out the CJR's Campaign Desk for update on media coverage of the elections in 2004.
Also, Daily Kos is running frequent updates from Iowa. And Josh Marshall will be blogging from New Hampshire next week. And, stay tuned to the Seamus Press as I'm hoping to increase coverage of happenings in Pennsylvania. This will happen gradually because things are real busy for me right now. But it will happen.
Posted by seamus at 07:06 PM | Comments (1)
January 11, 2004
Silence
Hey folks,
Sorry for the silence here this past week. I have been busy with others things. Will be out of town for a few days and I have a couple of posts I'm working on which I'll post then.
-Seamus
Posted by seamus at 12:02 PM | Comments (0)
January 04, 2004
Understated Cheney
This Reuters article is interesting even if its headline, Cheney Is a Quiet Force Behind Bush Presidency, is a bit of an understatement:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Dick Cheney has worked behind a veil of secrecy to become one of the most powerful U.S. vice presidents, regarded as a driving force behind the Iraq war and the Bush administration's industry-friendly energy policy.Cheney, a longtime Bush family confidant who was Defense Secretary in the first Gulf War, headed the search committee for George W. Bush's vice presidential candidate in the 2000 presidential campaign before Bush tapped him for the job.
I hadn't thought about how Cheney became Bush's VP candidate in a long time. But looking back, it couldn't be any more obvious that Cheney had Bush choose Cheney precisely because Cheney could basically get Bush to do whatever he wanted. When Cheney got to know George personally during the VP search he must have realized that Bush was clueless and that without a strong hand to guide him he wouldn't do for Cheney's special interests what was expected. Cheney probably had an internal debate about whether or not Bush could succeed as the puppet President but figured that it was an opportunity to be President without actually having to be President. And who better than the puppeteer excellence himself to guarantee Bush's successes. Only if one could have been a fly on the wall.
Posted by seamus at 07:20 PM | Comments (1)
Screwing up with SOUNDEX
Soj has some great commentary over on DKos about why the false terror alarms that grounded numerous international flights over Christmas. In particular, she explains how a 5 year old child can cause an Air France flight to be cancelled. And yes, it has nothing to do with competence:
Let me tell you what's not included in the story. The names on the passenger list don't actually "sound" like the names on the terrorism watch list. The United States uses an antiquated system for "codifying" passenger names, which takes the approximate sound of your name and converts it to what's called the "Soundex" code system, which uses 3 letters and 3 numbers. So whether or not your name is "Pat" or "Bahir-al-Shakir-al-Humaq-al-Husseini", you still end up coded as a 3 letter, 3 number byte. If your last name is spelled "Smyth" or "Smith", it will be given the same Soundex code because it "sounds" the same. The explanation of exactly how this is done is here.Now, there are two languages which have a lot of sounds that don't exist in English and names and place spellings are not fixed between them and English. One of them is Arabic and the other is Chinese. That's how those two passengers ended up on the "terrorist" list. I imagine that the Welsh man probably had a Welsh name, and the idiot who coded his name put it in sounding something like a terrorist's name.
So if your name is "Cymru am Blyth" and its Soundex code comes out to be "AQR393" and another guy's name is "Mohammed al-Bakr-al-Sistani" and his Soundex code is "AQR393" then, according to the stupid American computer, you are the same person. In the United States, this often happens when peace activists and others get banned from flying, even on domestic flights. God help you if your Soundex code matches one of their names or you won't be making it in time for Aunt Ginny's plum pudding.
I read this and my jaw just dropped. You've got to be kidding me right? Apparently not. Go read Soj's piece yourself and when you get a chance check out her excellent blog.
Posted by seamus at 12:41 PM | Comments (0)
Playoffs Today!
No, not the NFL Playoffs. The Democratic Playoffs! For those who are interested the first debate of 2004 is on National Public Radion and CSPAN today at 3pm. You can catch it on WPSU here in northern/central Pennsylvania (click over to their website to listen on-line) at either 90.1 FM or 91.5 FM depending on where you live. The Iowa vote is only 15 days away so these debates are increasing in importance.
Posted by seamus at 10:41 AM | Comments (0)
The Bush Effect
This is something from the 2000 campaign that may have swung the election (besides the miscounts in Florida of course). Going into the debates Gore was the clear front runner. The expectations were that Bush was a bumbling fool who would get crushed in the debates.
And the truth is Bush did get crushed in the debates. On the merits of them anyhow. But merits don't count in politics anymore. And Bush won simply by sticking strongly to his talking points and not bumbling as much as expected. He actually bumbled quite a lot which shows how low expectations were (does anyone remember the goofball affirmative action comments where he didn't even know what it was?).
So, its interesting to see the media describe Howard Dean as a bumbling fool. Its interesting because so much of the accusations about Dean are not Dean's mistaken statements, but the twisting of those statements by other campaigns. Take the "flap" over Dean's complaints about the attacks of other campaigns. The pundits say, "Dean called the other candidates Washington Insiders for 9 months." Well, its indisputable that the other candidates are Washington Insiders. But then take the "Osama ad" run by Gephardt Supporters. This was the most incendiary, ridiculous ad of the election cycle. There is no way that the two things are equal.
Anyhow, I watched Tim Russert and five pundits discuss Dean's take on religion this morning without actually communicating what Dean has actually said about why he is going to discuss religion more publicly. The only distinction is not that Dean has suddenly become more religious but that he is going to talk more publicly about his religion. There are many Americans who do not talk publicly about their faith and prefer to keep their faith discussions to a more personal level. But, by listening to the pundits Dean is a bumbling oaf opportunist who suddenly believes in God.
So whats my point? Tim Russert Bring it on! As long as Dean can survive the primary these lowered expectations being established by the punditry are a positive in the long term. In the general election the biggest problem will be overcoming problems of perception. Well, Dean being underestimated makes it easier for pundits to say later - "Dean really has gotten his act together, very impressive."
This is because punditry comments are almost always relative assessments based on previous subjective assessments made by the punditry. This is why Bush can look "good" even as he stumbles around like a fool proudly announcing that he, as Bill Maher recently noted on Jay Leno, doesn't read the newspapers (Maher cleverly noted that this makes Bush much like Louis XIV with his advisors saying "The people love you my King"). If only Bush had some sort of grip on reality.
Posted by seamus at 10:26 AM | Comments (0)
January 03, 2004
Flying Children
I'm sorry but this is ridiculous. They had no means of verifying that the "terrorist" was a 5 year old child before the flight took off? Come on! This isn't intelligence, its absurdity. There may be a real threat out there but keeping five year olds off of planes is not going to help. From the NY Times:
But with that aggressive approach have come questions about the quality of the intelligence information. In the case of the Air France cancellations, for instance, the discovery of a name on the passenger manifest similar to that of a Tunisian pilot with possible extremist links ratcheted up concern. But officials said it turned out to be a case of mistaken identity; the name of the passenger was that of a child, a senior official said in an interview. Other apparent "hits" from American terror watch lists turned out to be an elderly Chinese woman who owned a restaurant and a Welsh insurance agent, an F.B.I. official said.
I can't imagine that there is anything else that actually needs to be said about this. It just seems that we still don't have a handle on how to actually prevent terrorist attacks without unnecessarily stopping flying children.
Posted by seamus at 01:02 AM | Comments (0)
January 02, 2004
Rendell does good.... but does he get it?
This is great news! I posted earlier about a ridiculous corporate giveaway that Rendell signed into law this week. So I thought it only proper to give him some props for vetoing a terrible corporate handout to factory farms.
In the waning moments of 2003, Gov. Rendell vetoed a highly controversial bill that critics said would have stripped townships of power to restrict large farming operations.
Here is some info on what this Bill did:
"If this had passed, factory farms would have taken over, and in short order. And if anyone had tried to block it, they would have been sued."Breech said that under the vetoed law, a company could have decided to build a large farm, and anyone who had tried to stop it could be accused of "willful and wanton action" and sued.
Guy F. Donaldson, president of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau, the state largest farmers' organization, said the bill simply would have required townships to pay farmers' legal bills if the farmers successfully challenged an illegal local ordinance.
"Gov. Rendell's veto... essentially says to farmers that they are on their own so far as dealing with illegal local farm ordinances," said Donaldson. About 60 of the state's approximately 1,400 townships have enacted ordinances that go beyond state law in regulating large farms, including implementing water-withdrawal restrictions and buffer zones, he said.
Gotta love the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau. What a corporate puppet they are. They could screw farmers over left and right but they'll still pretend to stand for farmers. Its ridiculous.
And for insight into how a typical bill passes the Pennsylvania Assembly.
The bill drew criticism not only because of its contents, but also because of the way it was approved: It cleared the House and Senate in less than 24 hours, attached to a seemingly unrelated bill that concerned summary offenses involving motor vehicles.
My state senator Mary Jo White (19 year corporate lobbyist for Quaker State) is one of the routine offendors of reasonable process. She teams with Scarnati (another piece of work) to move things from Committee to a Floor Vote before the other Senators can blink. They've been doing this for a while and I wouldn't be surprised if they were involved in this.
But this is where Rendell has no clue:
Rendell said the bill would not "chill township supervisors" from passing laws to regulate agriculture operations.
I'm hoping this is a misquote because this is primarily what this Bill did. And this is why so many were united in fighting it.
Posted by seamus at 06:37 PM | Comments (0)
Oh, and Happy New Year!
You might have noticed the rather lack of posting during the holidays. I was distracted by family and fun and decided to put off posting until the New Year. I expect to be more consistent in posting as time wanes on. You'll also notice more analysis too. It is all a matter of working this blog into my daily routine more smoothly and efficiently.
And on that note I hope that everyone has had a Happy New Year! 2004 is going to be an intense year with lots happening politically. And if you have the time please sign up for the Hoeffel Meetup scheduled for January 21st.
Posted by seamus at 03:16 PM | Comments (0)
More Election News
This one screams RECOUNT! In another close judicial election the Republican currently has what you might call a slight advantage according to the Post-Gazette:
HARRISBURG, Pa. -- A federal judge today refused to block the certification of a closely fought election for a seat on a state appeals court, clearing the way for Republican Susan P. Gantman to claim a vacant Superior Court seat.The current election totals put Gantman, a family lawyer from Montgomery County, ahead by 28 votes -- of about 2.2 million ballots cast -- over her Democratic foe, Westmoreland County Common Pleas Judge John J. Driscoll.
Gantman's victory, unless overturned by the ongoing case in the federal court, will give the GOP at least a symbolic majority on the 15-member court.
U.S. District Judge James Knoll Gardner, who held an emergency hearing on the case in Philadelphia on Wednesday, turned down a request from Driscoll's lawyers for a restraining order temporarily barring state officials from certifying election results for three Superior Court seats from the Nov. 4 election.
28 votes out of 2.2 million. You could call that close! At least the political impliciations are minimized:
Two Democrats -- Northampton County Judge Jack A. Panella and Philadelphia Municipal Judge Seamus P. McCaffery -- won the other Superior Court judgeships that were on the November ballot.
Posted by seamus at 03:10 PM | Comments (0)
Kadunce v. Quinn
This is interesting. It seems there is to be a recount in my local District Justice race. I'm glad as the candidate I supported lost by eight votes. Here is the report from the Clarion News:
CLARION - A senior judge Dec. 29 agreed to grant the request of District Justice18-3-02 candidate Nancy Kadunce to recount 11 precinct boxes from the Nov. 4 general election.But it is unclear when the recount will take place and who will be involved in recounting the votes.
Senior Judge Carson Brown was appointed to hear Kadunce’s petition to recount the votes and her petition contesting the results of the general election after both Clarion County Court of Common Pleas Judge James Arner and Senior Judge Charles Alexander reused themselves from the case.
Kadunce filed arguments on two different matters including 11 petitions to recount boxes from Farmington (three precincts), Highland , Knox, Millcreek , Monroe, Paint, Piney and Washington townships and Sligo Borough.
GOP candidate Duane Quinn – who was appointed to serve after District Justice Norman Heasley retired – edged out Democrat Kadunce by eight votes, 1,508 to 1,500.
But this is the interesting part of the article:
Kadunce also filed a motion contesting the race alleging “absentee ballot fraud.”...
LaVieta Lerch, Kadunce’s legal counsel, pointed out Kadunce plans to amend her petition seeking the opening and counting of absentee ballots which were not included in the certified count.
The county election board placed an unknown number of absentee ballots in a secured envelope after determining those absentee ballots were not received in the courthouse by 5 p.m. the Friday before the Nov. 4 general election therefore not meeting the Election Code deadlines.
The election board indicated there were 110 absentee ballots received for the district justice race.
I have also heard that there is an issue with third party handling of the ballot box. Woah, what is happening! It seems election fraud may have hit my own backyard and I was completely unaware. Some local folks, and good ones at that, have organized a group to watchdog local elections:
CLARION -- Concern for fair elections in Clarion County recently prompted a group of county residents to form and register a political action committee at the Clarion County Courthouse.“Citizens for Fair Elections” was formed in response to the disparities uncovered in the recent general election process in Clarion County , including a district justice race that left as many questions as answers.
Nancy Kadunce is legally challenging the election results, which includes the handling, processing and counting of absentee ballots.
According to organizers, CFFE is embarking on a public awareness campaign.
The goal of the group, which is self-described as non-partisan, is to make every individual, who cast a vote during the election or who is eligible to vote, aware of the current procedures being followed which could be in violation of Pennsylvania’s election laws, explained Suzan Hahnfeldt, CFFE co-chair.
Posted by seamus at 02:29 PM | Comments (0)
Rendell Approves Wal-Mart
A group of local citizens has been opposing this land deal in Warren Couny for some time. Basically this would take a strip of land set aside for agricultural restrictions and open it for development by Wal-Mart. This has been defeated in court already and only succeeded after it was turned into a legislative bribe ($3.2 million to a state farmland fund and a larger set aside elsewhere). I only followed this issue a little but the stirp of land where the Wal-Mart is going in was important to maintaining a certain rural character to this area and it'll be sad to see it replaced with that prozac smiley face. Here is a summary from this morning's Warren Times-Observer:
After a tortured journey through the state House of Representatives and swift passage by the state Senate, Gov. Ed Rendell signed House Bill 66 into law Tuesday.Commercial development can now get underway in North Warren along Rt. 62.
Echo Real Estate Services, Pittsburgh, will purchase three North Warren parcels from Warren County for $4,010,000. Of that total, $3.2 million will be deposited directly into the state's farmland preservation fund. Warren County will receive $586,000.
Echo's development plans include a mid-sized Wal-Mart, a Lowe's home improvement center, two restaurants, a clothing retailer, a plaza of smaller shops and possibly a motel.
The legislation Rendell signed Tuesday transfers 29.6 acres across from Warren State Hospital from the state to the county. It also removes an agriculture-only deed restriction on a 22.7 acre parcel at the corner of Rts. 62 and 69.
The act transfers the ag-restriction on the 22.7 acres to 45.8 acres in Scandia owned by John Anderson.
...
Virtually every aspect of the transfer and lifting of the deed restriction has been scrutinized during the past two years - first in litigation, then in debate in the House.
Lynch introduced the bill in the House this past Jan. 29 but it did not reach the House floor until Nov. 19.
On Nov. 25, the House defeated the bill by a vote of 152-48. Echo then hired Capital Associates, a Harrisburg lobbying firm.
Three weeks later, the bill was passed the House 106-89.
Posted by seamus at 01:26 PM | Comments (0)